OTB I think I understood this position and am happy with my decision and reasoning. I have some play if White pops a 6, but it isn't likely that I can counter block and force a crash as he has spares to play, but we've all seen worse happen. If he doesn't pop out he attacks and then I can get G'd and I also can get G'd if he pops and my attacking fails. But this is a 5 prime..I just couldn't pass.
Anyhow...lets look at bot evals on "default".. first of all, Snowie is so far off from reality that it needs to be chained in BK's kitchen and forced to eat 3 meals a day for a month. LOL this can't be the .752 D/T it thinks this is.
GNU rollout is here and it says D/close T as we did OTB but GNU eval is borderline Whoppering my take on 2 ply..clearly Whoppering it on 3 ply and 4 play wakes up and says it is only a 1.036 take. (Hint to GNU users..get a clue and buy a multi-cored HT comp and use 4 ply)
OK now for XG... 3 ply says clear pass and 4 ply says pass while XGR says bare pass which is same as rollout implies.
 is jdg_score: 6 pip: 112 | ||||||||||||||||
 | 15 point match | |||||||||||||||
| pip: 121 score: 8  is neilkaz | ||||||||||||||||
| XGID=--B--bCBCBB------bbcbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:8:6:0:15:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.65% (G: 22.27% B: 0.49%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.35% (G: 4.91% B: 0.28%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.575 |
| Double: | +1.183 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.816 (-0.184) |
| Double/Take: | +1.008 (+0.008) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.008 (+0.808...+0.824) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.013 (+0.995...+1.020) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 87.6% |
| Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes 31 seconds | |
Version: 1.03, MET: GnuBG 11 point