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BGonline.org Forums
Settlements Re: An 8 Cube
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Settlements Re: An 8 Cube (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Monday, 5 October 2009, at 7:21 a.m.
Matt wrote: Apparently none of us were in the ballpark re the correct settlement which is about half a point. I am not sure where the extra wins come from, but probably the rest of it is from racing vig.
There's some there, but the race is so bad bad that White should not run with 5-5, even though it could play so pretty 21/6 10/5.
OTB it's easy to count White's immediate winners. It's a little more difficult to count White's second-roll winning hits (although I overestimated them) but a practiced player could still do this rather accurately. Now if we were to go OTB to White's third-roll hits, the percent of a percent of a percent a percent of a percent math is too much for most of us. And often the total is too small to worry about. But I should have seen that in this position, "often" Blue will survive one or two rolls but come down to a fairly dangerous one with 2 checkers on the 7 and 3 on the 6, or 2 checkers on each point, or 2 checkers on the 6 -- and then, the gap on the 5 point will mean that "a lot" of Blue's numbers won't clear without a blot. I wouldn't have known to quantify "often" and "a lot" OTB, but I think that yesterday I clearly underestimated White's extra wins from a third (even fourth!) chance at a blot (I gave White only another 2% wins for those sequences -- not enough).
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