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Rollouts ..Bots etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2009, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: How good is the outside prime? (neilkaz)

Snowie wins the battle of bots here as it thinks it is a 1.001 pass at score (whew just barely making the right decision) XG says a clear .91 take on 3 ply and XGR says about the same (note it is trunc at 6 so not seeing close to the finish here). GNU 2 ply was way off the mark and nearly double whoppering me.

The score (after 4 games) is: jdg_ 6, neilkaz 8 (match to 15 points)

Move number 36: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

jdg_	75
neilkaz	112
Position ID: e9sYAEDGtm2AAA Match ID: UQngAWAAQAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6104	(Money: +0.6214)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0651	+0.0651
3.	No double	+0.9487	-0.0513
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.8026 0.0495 0.0021 - 0.1974 0.0349 0.0005 +0.6104 +0.9487 Standard error 0.0005 0.0004 0.0003 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 0.0028 Player jdg_ owns 4-cube 0.8085 0.0476 0.0036 - 0.1915 0.0354 0.0005 +1.2184 +1.0651 Standard error 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 - 0.0006 0.0004 0.0001 0.0028 0.0034
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
10233 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871232216 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

is jdg_ score: 6 pip: 75

15 point match

pip: 112 score: 8 is neilkaz

XGID=a-B--BBBBBB------bA-bbbdb-:1:1:1:00:8:6:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	80.20% (G: 4.88% B: 0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.80% (G: 3.45% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.602
Redouble:	+1.180
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.962 (-0.038)
Redouble/Take:	+1.053 (+0.053)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.010 (+0.952...+0.972)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.012 (+1.041...+1.065)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 21 seconds

Version: 1.03, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• How good is the outside prime?
  neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:50 a.m.
  • How good is the outside prime?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:02 a.m.
  • How good is the outside prime?
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:46 a.m.
    • How good is the outside prime?
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 7:38 a.m.
    • Checker play
      neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:35 p.m.
  • How good is the outside prime?
    Havard Raddum -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 9:21 a.m.
    • How good is the outside prime?
      jdg -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 1:42 p.m.
  • Thoughts OTB
    neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:37 p.m.
  • Rollouts ..Bots etc
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 October 2009, at 1:22 a.m.