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Rollouts

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2009, at 1:33 a.m.

In Response To: Positionally Busted (neilkaz)

Rollouts indeed show that my game isn't as good as I had felt..ie this is not the bare take I expected. My opp just has too much play here as I try to get around past his points and the position isn't very volatile on this sequence of dice.

is mpetch score: 0 pip: 161

15 point match

pip: 142 score: 0 is neilkaz

XGID=--bB-BCBB---c-b--cBe-B----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	69.09% (G: 18.27% B: 1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.91% (G: 6.72% B: 0.35%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.509
Double:	+1.037
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.815
Double/Take:	+0.806 (-0.009)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.185)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.015 (+0.799...+0.830)
Confidence Double:	± 0.018 (+0.788...+0.824)
Double Decision confidence:	76.2%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 50 minutes 36 seconds

Version: 1.03, MET: GnuBG 11 point

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 3: user on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	161
user	142
Position ID: 4HPMARjMbgMwBg Match ID: cAngAQAAAAAA

• user doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0101)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5105	(Money: +0.5052)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8236
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1764
3.	Double, take	+0.8135	-0.0101
Proper cube action:		No double, take (5.4%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6940 0.1785 0.0077 - 0.3060 0.0662 0.0027 +0.5105 +0.8236 Standard error 0.0014 0.0018 0.0007 - 0.0014 0.0011 0.0003 0.0037 0.0100 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6966 0.1796 0.0081 - 0.3034 0.0661 0.0026 +1.0492 +0.8135 Standard error 0.0015 0.0020 0.0006 - 0.0015 0.0012 0.0003 0.0077 0.0106
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1821 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 870706368 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Positionally Busted
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 October 2009, at 10:04 p.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 12:43 a.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 12:48 a.m.
    • Positionally Busted
      neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 1:09 a.m.
      • Positionally Busted
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 1:26 a.m.
      • Positionally Busted
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 7:42 a.m.
        • Positionally Busted
          MaX -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 9:24 a.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:05 a.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 7:27 a.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Michael Petch -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 11:42 a.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Stick -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:20 p.m.
  • My thoughts OTB
    neilkaz -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 3:47 p.m.
  • Positionally Busted
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 5 October 2009, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 October 2009, at 1:33 a.m.