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Cube position

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2009, at 8:19 p.m.

In Response To: Cube position (Frank_N_Stein)

These are generally takes. Everyone always passes so I just cube whether or not it's a cube.

Let's say you get hit. How bad is it? Pretty bad...you may be able to anchor and win from there but it will be difficult. Let's say you are 10-20%, and we'll start with 10% as the low estimate.

What misses? 11, of course, after which you still need to roll an ace or 66 or 55 (though a deuce isn't bad...so you will be favored to do something good). 65 and 66 are total misses. That's 3 rolls. Say you win 70% of those. The other 12 rolls will come in and hit on the deuce point. Let's say the game is 50-50 at that point (this seems like a fairly favorable estimate for your opponent yet still pretty reasonable). Since I don't really know how to evaluate 11 let's lump it in with the 50-50.

Adding it all up...you win 10% of 20 (2 games), 70% of 3 (2.1 games), 50% of 13 (6.5 games). That adds to 10.5 games. 9 games is 25% and your takepoint at tihs score is 26.5%. 1 game is close to 2.8% and half that is about 1.4%. So it would seem to be a close decision. Since I skewed all these estimates in favor of White, you should take. Cube seems clear since hitting is a huge market loss.

Using a bit higher estimates in favor of Black I get him winning 14 games, not counting gammons. That isn't beaverable but would probably be ND for money.

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