OTB I had a tough choice, but ultimately settled on 8/7* 24/21 - the correct play. I considered many of the factors already mentioned by others, and knew that the 31 hit and split was barely correct on the second roll against 64S. Here I concluded that the presence of builders in my opponent's outfield made the hit more necessary than that benchmark as it had even greater value as a tempo play.
ZurichMint (Green) vs. ez2bcubed (White)
7 point Match
Match to 7. Score Green-White: 0-0 7 point Match
                               | Pip: 149 | |
| Game 1 7 point match Green-White: Score 0-0 | ||
| Pip: 157 |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 24/21 8/7* | -0.228 | |
| 0.9% 14.0% 44.3% 55.7% 19.2% 1.7% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.175 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1249 games (equiv. 37810 games), played 3-ply (standard), seed 1, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 8/5 6/5 | -0.258 (-0.030) | |
| 0.6% 13.9% 43.0% 57.0% 17.6% 1.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.182 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 47161 games), played 3-ply (standard), seed 1, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 13/10 8/7* | -0.273 (-0.044) | |
| 0.9% 15.0% 43.7% 56.3% 20.9% 2.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.196 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 35973 games), played 3-ply (standard), seed 1, with race database. | ||||
This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 8:12:08 PM, 10/6/2009(Export v2.10)
Output date: 8:12:08 PM, 10/6/2009(Export v2.10)