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My thoughts over the board

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 7 October 2009, at 5:23 p.m.

In Response To: My thoughts over the board (Frank_N_Stein)

"I gave very little into winning so that was not the consideration. If I take and lose I am 9-10 crawford and unless I win gammon next game I have to play two games to win. If I drop the cube its 9-9 and most likely the next game will be the last game. I liked my chances in one game over two games where one is crawford. "

It is always a clear choice if the two alternative scenarios you weigh are:

1) Drop the cube

2) Play on in the cases where things go bad.

Never ignore #3:

3) Play on in the cases where things go well.

Case 3 is never anywhere near likely, or else you wouldn't be seeing the cube would you? So if likely were the test, you'd drop every cube you got.

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