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DMP 52 - hit? - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 12 October 2009, at 5:15 a.m.

In Response To: DMP 52 - hit? (Keene)

I didnt hit, bar point for me. Rollout did indeed turn that into the #1 play, but really, its still extremely close, and no real sign of either play stretching away from the other.

I only considered seriously the hit and the bar pt. It was a match full of jokers which I eventually won. (after more hitting sequences - see below for a couple of examples after this play).

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 38: black to play 25

red	115
black	107
Position ID: zrsBgBiz84hAIA Match ID: QQl1ACAACAAA

• black moves 12/7 9/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	12/7 9/7	+0.030
			0.515 0.201 0.019 - 0.485 0.185 0.008 +0.030 +0.030 0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872233729 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/5*	+0.029 ( -0.001)
			0.514 0.238 0.032 - 0.486 0.268 0.050 +0.029 +0.029 0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6356 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872233729 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.1 (min. 324 games)
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	24/17	-0.039 ( -0.068)
			0.481 0.132 0.003 - 0.519 0.268 0.021
	4	0	24/22 9/4	-0.118 ( -0.148)
			0.441 0.127 0.002 - 0.559 0.238 0.009
	5	0	18/16 9/4	-0.191 ( -0.220)
			0.405 0.113 0.002 - 0.595 0.255 0.010

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 44: black to play 62

red	101
black	70
Position ID: u20BgBGz8xsAAA Match ID: QQlrACAACAAA

• black moves 7/1 4/2*

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.332)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/1 4/2*	+0.479
			0.739 0.160 0.001 - 0.261 0.053 0.001
	2	2	7/1 6/4	+0.260 ( -0.219)
			0.630 0.132 0.002 - 0.370 0.015 0.000
	3	0	7/1 3/1	-0.178 ( -0.657)
			0.411 0.073 0.000 - 0.589 0.085 0.001

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 45: red to play 22

red	103
black	62
Position ID: 1+YXAAC7bQGAQQ Match ID: AQFpACAACAAA

• red moves bar/23* 20/18*/16 6/4

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +1.126)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/23* 20/18*(2) 6/4	+0.677
			0.839 0.271 0.002 - 0.161 0.035 0.001
•	2	2	bar/23* 20/18*/16 6/4	+0.675 ( -0.003)
			0.837 0.276 0.002 - 0.163 0.036 0.001
	3	2	bar/23* 20/18* 6/2	+0.602 ( -0.075)
			0.801 0.223 0.001 - 0.199 0.051 0.001
	4	2	bar/23* 20/18*/14	+0.564 ( -0.113)
			0.782 0.283 0.003 - 0.218 0.071 0.002
	5	2	bar/23* 20/18*/16 20/18	+0.564 ( -0.113)
			0.782 0.277 0.003 - 0.218 0.080 0.003

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 46: black to play 66

red	95
black	103
Position ID: u90ACBFn8wMAYA Match ID: QQl7ACAACAAA

• black moves bar/13(2)

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.922)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/13(2)	+0.312
			0.656 0.095 0.001 - 0.344 0.018 0.000
	2	0	bar/7 bar/19	-0.192 ( -0.504)
			0.404 0.079 0.001 - 0.596 0.121 0.001

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 48: black to play 55

red	84
black	79
Position ID: u90BABFn8wMGAA Match ID: QYl2ACAACAAA

• black moves 13/3(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/3(2)	+0.699
			0.850 0.015 0.000 - 0.150 0.001 0.000
	2	2	13/8(2) 6/1(2)	+0.537 ( -0.162)
			0.769 0.022 0.000 - 0.231 0.009 0.000
	3	0	13/3 6/1(2)	+0.373 ( -0.326)
			0.686 0.033 0.000 - 0.314 0.017 0.000
	4	0	6/1(4)	+0.234 ( -0.465)
			0.617 0.024 0.000 - 0.383 0.030 0.000
	5	0	13/3 13/8 6/1	+0.051 ( -0.648)
			0.525 0.039 0.000 - 0.475 0.027 0.000

The score (after 2 games) is: red 2, black 1 (match to 3 points, post-Crawford play)

Move number 50: black to play 66

red	78
black	59
Position ID: u90BBBDnzQ8AAA Match ID: QQl7ACAACAAA

• black moves 6/off(4)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	6/off(4)	+0.863
			0.931 0.032 0.000 - 0.069 0.000 0.000

Ta da! only the mightiest of rolling prowess pulled this one off.

Messages In This Thread

• DMP 52 - hit?
  Keene -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 5:37 a.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 7:29 a.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 7:34 a.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    Martin -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 11:30 p.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 11:32 p.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 October 2009, at 11:59 p.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    adambulldog -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 3:57 a.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit? - ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 5:15 a.m.
    • DMP 52 - hit? - ROLLOUT
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 3:38 p.m.
      • DMP 52 - hit? - ROLLOUT
        Keene -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 2:24 a.m.
  • DMP 52 - hit?
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 5:16 a.m.