BGonline.org Forums

GNU rollout..OTB etc etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 10:04 p.m.

In Response To: BK is open for lunch (neilkaz)

OTB and noting I want my 5 pt I played 8/5 7/6 inspite of sometimes duping hitting numbers...I want my 5 pt. I am not sure that is the best play but am pretty sure that the GNU and Snowie choice to make the 21 pt anchor is far wrong and likely a Whopper. It could be even worse than the rollout says since GNU may be incorrectly grabbing a 2nd anchor next roll, thereby reducing the equity of the better choices.

Initially I analysed the match with XG, which is what I do most of the time now, and when I later ran it thru GNU and wasn't terribly pleased with my ER when I compared to my XG ELO rating, I found this discrepancy.

XG correctly thinks that it is a clear error to make the 21 pt here.

The score (after 7 games) is: toody 5, neilkaz 6 (match to 15 points)

Move number 12: neilkaz to play 31

toody	129
neilkaz	188
Position ID: 4PNxBgCYNTjgJA Match ID: cInlAVAAMAAA

• neilkaz moves 8/5 7/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.3579	(Money: -0.3505)
	0.3829 0.0716 0.0010 - 0.6171 0.1832 0.0057
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.5334
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.5334
3.	Double, take	-1.2325	-0.6990
Proper cube action:		No double, take (31.3%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 7/6	-0.4057
			0.4236 0.0963 0.0034 - 0.5764 0.2035 0.0069 -0.2765 -0.4057 0.0016 0.0015 0.0003 - 0.0016 0.0016 0.0005 0.0042 0.0101
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1941 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/7 8/5	-0.4096 ( -0.0038)
			0.4210 0.0907 0.0033 - 0.5790 0.1994 0.0059 -0.2803 -0.4096 0.0019 0.0014 0.0004 - 0.0019 0.0019 0.0005 0.0050 0.0125
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1635 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/9	-0.4191 ( -0.0134)
			0.4260 0.0886 0.0035 - 0.5740 0.2008 0.0071 -0.2773 -0.4191 0.0016 0.0014 0.0004 - 0.0016 0.0016 0.0006 0.0042 0.0101
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1942 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/10 7/6	-0.4311 ( -0.0254)
			0.4220 0.0954 0.0035 - 0.5780 0.2006 0.0067 -0.2738 -0.4311 0.0054 0.0052 0.0014 - 0.0054 0.0057 0.0019 0.0145 0.0363
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			166 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	22/21 13/10	-0.4335 ( -0.0278)
			0.4181 0.0834 0.0022 - 0.5819 0.1970 0.0060 -0.2900 -0.4335 0.0034 0.0026 0.0005 - 0.0034 0.0033 0.0006 0.0082 0.0214
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			526 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/10 8/7	-0.4444 ( -0.0387)
			0.4186 0.0904 0.0031 - 0.5814 0.2016 0.0067 -0.2891 -0.4444 0.0032 0.0023 0.0003 - 0.0032 0.0032 0.0013 0.0080 0.0188
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			473 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	24/21 22/21	-0.5236 ( -0.1179)
			0.3913 0.0615 0.0013 - 0.6087 0.1602 0.0020 -0.3267 -0.5236 0.0034 0.0026 0.0003 - 0.0034 0.0027 0.0004 0.0083 0.0194
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			474 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871589766 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• BK is open for lunch
  neilkaz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:03 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Stick -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:20 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    David -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:22 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:33 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:40 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Keene -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:42 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Sam Pottle -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:02 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Martin -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:09 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:30 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Carter Mattig -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:56 p.m.
  • BK is open for lunch
    Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 7:24 a.m.
  • GNU rollout..OTB etc etc
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 10:04 p.m.
    • GNU rollout..OTB etc etc
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 1:32 a.m.