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Peoria cube action

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: Peoria cube action (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I spent about 5 minutes thinking about this one.

First off, I am not sure which side is a favorite here. I think I am. That would usually incline me to take.

However...I don't want a 4 cube with Larry, particularly in a position where most of his wins are Gs. And I am already leading 4-2 if I pass and don't need to risk falling behind in this match and trying to play catch up. Plus his moves are going to be more or less forced while I have most of the real decisions (of course I never know how this will play out unless I take, but this was my thought). Also, he is 80. He can maybe play OK in a short match but he probably can't concentrate in a long one.

I will usually have to break the 4 pt or maybe the 5 pt if I can't break the 4 in order to remake my board. That can lead to my being G'd or in a very rare case BG'd. And most of my recube vig is gone as I will almost never recube to 8.

All of this basically screamed pass but it was still hard to bring myself to pass this position. When I think I am better than 50% to win the game it is really difficult to pass. But I passed and went on to win a long match.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 4, user 0 (match to 11 points)

Move number 4: user on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	192
user	90
Position ID: bQUAbBsH724AAA Match ID: UQlgAUAAAAAA

• user doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3449	(Money: +0.2312)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7192
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2808
3.	No double	+0.6829	-0.0363
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player user owns 2-cube 0.5121 0.2957 0.0087 - 0.4879 0.0900 0.0075 +0.3449 +0.6829 Standard error 0.0014 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0014 0.0015 0.0009 0.0041 0.0083 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.5062 0.2986 0.0094 - 0.4938 0.0885 0.0108 +0.8575 +0.7192 Standard error 0.0016 0.0014 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0016 0.0011 0.0097 0.0101
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4956 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871193316 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Peoria cube action
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 5:21 a.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 9:37 a.m.
    • Peoria cube action
      David Kettler -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    Keene -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 2:23 p.m.
    • Peoria cube action
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 3:50 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 3:55 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 5:06 p.m.
    • Peoria cube action
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 5:12 p.m.
      • Peoria cube action
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 6:11 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    Martin -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 9:41 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:17 a.m.
    • Peoria cube action
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:23 a.m.