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Peoria cube action #3 RO

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:26 a.m.

In Response To: Peoria cube action #3 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This was another one I tanked on.

My first thought is clear take since I am on the right side of contact. But my second thought is how the fuck am I going to win this game? I am behind in the race so I'm probably not going to win by racing. He owns the 5 point and has no other blots so I am probably not going to win by priming him. And by a similar thought I can't win by attacking him. And I am leading a bit in the score. So why am I considering taking?

Well, if he misses me, I will have decent chances because I am totally escaped and he isn't. I won't be a favorite but I will have decent chances. If he hits me I can still hit back and the 3s are duped.

I counted 16 hitters of which 4 (33 53 55) are just about gin. But in the other 20 games where I get missed I am probably 40%-50%. That leaves me with 4.8-10 games...I should be able to make up enough to take from the rest even with the high gammon risk since the 3s are duped.

I had to steel myself to take this but I took. Malcolm missed but I couldn't really throw the numbers to build anything as he built a board, escaped off his anchor & brought it home easily.

The score (after 0 games) is: Matt Cohn-Geier 8, Malcolm Davis 7 (match to 13 points)

Move number 2: Malcolm Davis on roll, cube decision?

Matt Cohn-Geier	135
Malcolm Davis	126
Position ID: 4OfBEwDTnMEBAw Match ID: cAmgAYAAOAAA

• Malcolm Davis doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4949	(Money: +0.4768)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8601
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1399
3.	No double	+0.6923	-0.1677
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6604 0.1901 0.0019 - 0.3396 0.0341 0.0019 +0.4949 +0.6923 Standard error 0.0006 0.0010 0.0001 - 0.0006 0.0005 0.0003 0.0016 0.0035 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 2-cube 0.6683 0.1905 0.0019 - 0.3317 0.0331 0.0023 +1.1121 +0.8601 Standard error 0.0007 0.0012 0.0002 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0004 0.0039 0.0052
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4496 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871844225 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Peoria cube action #3
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 5:29 a.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 6:54 a.m.
    • Peoria cube action #3
      David Kettler -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 10:08 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Havard Raddum -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 12:02 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    David -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 3:40 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 4:04 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 6:13 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Martin -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 9:48 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Keene -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 10:06 p.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3
    Stick -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 11:24 p.m.
    • Peoria cube action #3
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:07 a.m.
  • Peoria cube action #3 RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:26 a.m.
    • Peoria cube action #3 RO
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:31 a.m.
    • Match file?
      adambulldog -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:49 a.m.
      • Match file?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 12:58 a.m.