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FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 3:35 a.m.

In Response To: FIBS tourney 13 October 2009 #1 (Jason Lee)

White's 8-cube takepoint ATS is ~31% and he clearly wins at least that often in this position so it's an easy take. Blue's dbling window is huge here, opening around 31% and closing at 69%. I think his winning chances are in the high 50s so he's in the window. He's got mkt losers with 6s that don't get hit back or with a D3-dance sequence. Is that enough to send it over? My rule of thumb for doubling or redoubling when the oppt will own a dead cube is that it's usually correct to send it over if you're within 8% of the oppt's takepoint and you have 3 or 4 mkt losers in 36. Here you're probably within 10% or so of the oppt's takepoint but you have around 9 mkt losers. My other general rule for these type of cube actions is that if you have more than 3 or 4 mkt losers then you can afford to double even sooner. Is this position an exception? I kind of doubt it. R/T is my guess.

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