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Error rate calculated how means what, exactly?

Posted By: Gregg Cattanach
Date: Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 8:12 p.m.

In Response To: Error rate calculated how means what, exactly? (Daniel Murphy)

OK. If you say "Davis played 3.27 based on 2-ply evaluation of THIS match", you've not told a lie. But certainly the error rate will be more accurate (and usually lower when dealing with top players) if you do some kind of rollout of the errors and cubes. And you still have the small problem of plays that evaluate as no-error and actually are an error after a rollout.

You should never say 'Davis plays at a X.XX' based on any one match or a small sample. I don't think many players have a large enough sample of OTB play to get a very accurate assessment of their overall error rate. Perhaps on-line or against the bot, but not OTB.

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