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4-Away, 4-Away - RO money game

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 3:02 a.m.

In Response To: 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score? (Max Urban)

JSD on plays 1 and 2 is about 1.7.

Money Game. Blue to play 6-1.

White	107
Blue	139
Position ID: G7uBAwK2vAKADQ Match ID: UQkHAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.4566
	0.3232 0.0855 0.0012 - 0.6768 0.1868 0.0028
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.3467
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.3467
3.	Double, take	-1.4983	-1.1516
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (46.1%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	7/1 6/5*	-0.4738
			0.3304 0.0639 0.0013 - 0.6696 0.3488 0.0118 -0.6346 -0.4738 0.0017 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0017 0.0019 0.0009 0.0044 0.0064
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1632 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/2 6/5*	-0.4882 ( -0.0144)
			0.3175 0.0595 0.0014 - 0.6825 0.3123 0.0086 -0.6251 -0.4882 0.0017 0.0011 0.0001 - 0.0017 0.0021 0.0005 0.0042 0.0056
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1630 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	8/1	-0.5488 ( -0.0750)
			0.2596 0.0324 0.0000 - 0.7404 0.2026 0.0042 -0.6553 -0.5488 0.0020 0.0014 0.0006 - 0.0020 0.0029 0.0006 0.0049 0.0063
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			683 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	21/15 8/7	-0.5623 ( -0.0885)
			0.2818 0.0615 0.0025 - 0.7182 0.2907 0.0082 -0.6712 -0.5623 0.0019 0.0014 0.0003 - 0.0019 0.0026 0.0007 0.0051 0.0073
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			681 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	7/1 2/1	-0.5803 ( -0.1065)
			0.2554 0.0321 0.0010 - 0.7446 0.2218 0.0043 -0.6822 -0.5803 0.0035 0.0022 0.0004 - 0.0035 0.0049 0.0006 0.0088 0.0114
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			285 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	22/16 8/7	-0.6241 ( -0.1503)
			0.2564 0.0566 0.0011 - 0.7436 0.2903 0.0048 -0.7244 -0.6241 0.0028 0.0026 0.0005 - 0.0028 0.0047 0.0008 0.0070 0.0094
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			285 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	22/16 6/5*	-0.6348 ( -0.1610)
			0.3265 0.1028 0.0023 - 0.6735 0.4677 0.0743 -0.7839 -0.6348 0.0067 0.0039 0.0007 - 0.0067 0.0093 0.0111 0.0214 0.0251
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			98 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	7/1 4/3	-0.6485 ( -0.1747)
			0.2308 0.0231 0.0001 - 0.7692 0.2238 0.0038 -0.7428 -0.6485 0.0031 0.0021 0.0008 - 0.0031 0.0047 0.0005 0.0073 0.0096
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			285 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	9	R	8/2 7/6	-0.6563 ( -0.1825)
			0.2292 0.0294 0.0009 - 0.7708 0.2070 0.0054 -0.7237 -0.6563 0.0031 0.0018 0.0008 - 0.0031 0.0051 0.0010 0.0078 0.0152
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			285 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	10	R	21/15 6/5*	-0.7115 ( -0.2377)
			0.3069 0.0862 0.0027 - 0.6931 0.4809 0.0563 -0.8344 -0.7115 0.0053 0.0038 0.0005 - 0.0053 0.0078 0.0118 0.0225 0.0260
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			97 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871929601 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/1 Eq.: -0.5245

0.2680 0.0428 0.0001 - 0.7320 0.1932 0.0012

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Cubeful 2-ply 7/1 6/5* Eq.: -0.5387 ( -0.0142)

0.3131 0.0698 0.0003 - 0.6869 0.3323 0.0091

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 6/5* Eq.: -0.5474 ( -0.0229)

0.3016 0.0634 0.0004 - 0.6984 0.3103 0.0067

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4. Cubeful 2-ply 7/1 2/1 Eq.: -0.5480 ( -0.0235)

0.2641 0.0428 0.0001 - 0.7359 0.2074 0.0015

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5. Cubeful 2-ply 21/15 8/7 Eq.: -0.5752 ( -0.0507)

0.2781 0.0661 0.0008 - 0.7219 0.2852 0.0075

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 7/6 Eq.: -0.5847 ( -0.0602)

0.2486 0.0381 0.0001 - 0.7514 0.2030 0.0017

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7. Cubeful 2-ply 7/1 4/3 Eq.: -0.5996 ( -0.0751)

0.2471 0.0374 0.0001 - 0.7529 0.2140 0.0014

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8. Cubeful 2-ply 22/16 8/7 Eq.: -0.6143 ( -0.0898)

0.2628 0.0627 0.0009 - 0.7372 0.2865 0.0063

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
  Max Urban -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 9:55 a.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:15 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
    Stick -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 4:17 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
    Martin -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:01 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 6:37 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - Backgame plan too risky at this score?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 7:35 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - RO at GG
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 2:14 p.m.
    • 4-Away, 4-Away - RO at GG
      Max Urban -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 2:25 p.m.
    • It would be nice to see a rollout with the OP score and cube position
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 4:48 p.m.
      • It would be nice to see a rollout with the OP score and cube position
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 14 October 2009, at 5:04 p.m.
      • My friggin LT rebooted overnight..but after 3888 games
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 5:39 p.m.
        • My friggin LT rebooted overnight..but after 3888 games
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 8:51 p.m.
          • Will redo this over weekend *NM*
            neilkaz -- Friday, 16 October 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
            • XG rollout continues...
              neilkaz -- Saturday, 17 October 2009, at 5:35 p.m.
  • 4-Away, 4-Away - RO money game
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 3:02 a.m.