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Error rate calculated how means what, exactly?

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 4:58 a.m.

In Response To: Error rate calculated how means what, exactly? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

"Suppose in one match one player played an ER of 3 and another player played an ER of 5. How big of a favorite was the stronger player?"

My rule of thumb is that each ER point equals 3% difference in winning percentage for a match of 11 points. A player who is 2 ER points better than his opponent would, therefore, be a 53% to 47% favorite in an 11 point match (a 6% difference in winning percentage). A 3 ER point difference would make the better player a 54.5% favorite, and a 4 ER point difference would make the better player a 56% favorite.

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