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Error rate calculated how means what, exactly?

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: Error rate calculated how means what, exactly? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Whether one uses your estimate (55%-45% favorite) or mine (53% to 47% favorite), the conclusion is that a player who is, on average, 2 ER points better than his opponents doesn't win 80% or 90% of his matches against the lower ER opponent, even though he might act like he's an overwhelming favorite.

To look at this from another perspective (using the average of our estimates), a 54% favorite in each match will win a 6 match tournament about once every 40 tournaments, while a 46% favorite in each match will win a 6 match tournament once every 105 tournaments. Over a lifetime of play (10 tournaments a year for 30 years), the better player will win 7.5 tournaments (if all opponents were 2 ER worse) and the worse player will win 3 tournaments (if all opponents were 2 ER better).

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