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Error rate calculated how means what, exactly?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 7:49 p.m.

In Response To: Error rate calculated how means what, exactly? (Marv Porten)

Whether one uses your estimate (55%-45% favorite) or mine (53% to 47% favorite), the conclusion is that a player who is, on average, 2 ER points better than his opponents doesn't win 80% or 90% of his matches against the lower ER opponent, even though he might act like he's an overwhelming favorite.

I think you missed my point.

Say the player who averages a 5.0 is a 55-45 favorite over the player who averages a 3.0.

IOW it is possible for there to be absolutely no correlation at all between ER and winning.

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