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Rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 16 October 2009, at 4:15 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both? (Timothy Chow)

Gnubg appears to make one error in Tim's rollout (above) but it's small. After 4-2: 8/4 6/4 ... 3-X: bar/22, 2-play fails to double. Applying the rollout result below to Tim's rollout raises the ME for 4-2 by 0.0171*8/36 = 0.0038. I did say "small." And of course, the actual value is uncertain.

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 2, Hero 1 (match to 7 points)

Move number 5: Hero on roll, cube decision?

Opponent	139
Hero	123
Position ID: sHcHAUSbecABGA Match ID: cAngACAACAAA

• Hero doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3080	(Money: +0.2777)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.4495
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5505
3.	No double	+0.4324	-0.0171
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5434 0.3078 0.0099 - 0.4566 0.1196 0.0070 +0.3080 +0.4324 Standard error 0.0008 0.0010 0.0003 - 0.0008 0.0010 0.0006 0.0026 0.0056 Player Opponent owns 2-cube 0.5512 0.3210 0.0095 - 0.4488 0.1166 0.0100 +0.7749 +0.4495 Standard error 0.0010 0.0022 0.0007 - 0.0010 0.0013 0.0010 0.0069 0.0090
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2722 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872214616 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.2777 (Money: +0.2523)
0.5352 0.3020 0.0070 - 0.4648 0.1228 0.0043
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.3894
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.6106)
3. Double, take +0.3412 ( -0.0482)
Proper cube action: No double, take (7.3%)

Messages In This Thread

• 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
  Max Urban -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 9:33 a.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Joe Russell -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 10:16 a.m.
    • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Joe Russell -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 10:32 a.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 1:50 p.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 2:43 p.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Martin -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 5:56 p.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 10:09 p.m.
    • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Joe Russell -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 10:57 p.m.
      • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 12:25 a.m.
        • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
          Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 4:30 a.m.
          • Short rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
            Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 4:09 a.m.
            • Short rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
              Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 5:03 a.m.
              • 2592-game rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
                Timothy Chow -- Friday, 16 October 2009, at 2:41 p.m.
                • 2592-game rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
                  Rich Munitz -- Friday, 16 October 2009, at 5:48 p.m.
    • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 3:46 a.m.
      • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 4:23 a.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Keene -- Monday, 12 October 2009, at 11:19 p.m.
    • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 1:06 a.m.
      • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
        Keene -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 2:22 a.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 6:42 a.m.
    • 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Max Urban -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 8:12 a.m.
  • 42! Edge of Prime Teaser
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 October 2009, at 4:57 p.m.
  • Rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 15 October 2009, at 3:02 p.m.
    • Rollout: 42! Edge of Prime, Point or Bit of Both?
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 16 October 2009, at 4:15 p.m.