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Peoria Final -- Position 1

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 7:28 a.m.

In Response To: Peoria Final -- Position 1 (Chuck Bower)

If I figured right, there are approximately 44 extra hits in 1296 by splitting, if you count them don't forget to count the shots that will likely occur after not splitting and a 3-3 is rolled. Using MEC26, the percentages are: 13-8 = 100%; 11-8 = 73.7%; 9-10 = 42.9%. The win/gammon loss trade is 30.8/26.3, so wins pick up 117% of what your gammon losses cost. The split doesn't win as much after a blot is hit as the non-split, but as a first step assume you win all the extra hits. Would it be right to split, if I am right about the number of extra hits?

You win 44/1296(.0334) extra games. It would not be right to split if you lose > (.0334 * 1.17)= .0397 extra gammons. Do you? It seems like the greatest gammon swing rolls are: 3-3; 4-3; 5-3; and 6-3. Also, many of the other shot splitting numbers leave you on the bar after splitting. I would estimate about 4% more gammons by splitting. If my estimates on the gammons and the extra hits are correct, this would make it close to a wash if all your extra hits were wins, but not only are they not all wins, the equal hits win less often as well.

13-7 is my play.

Messages In This Thread

• Peoria Final -- Position 1
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 7:25 p.m.
  • Peoria Final -- Position 1-- OTB
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 7:29 p.m.
    • Peoria Final -- Position 1-- OTB
      David Startin -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 10:03 a.m.
  • Peoria Final -- Position 1
    Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 8:27 a.m.
    • Peoria Final -- Position 1
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Peoria Final -- Position 1
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
    • Peoria Final -- Position 1
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 7:28 a.m.