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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Opening 5-1 (split) 2-1 Surprise
Posted By: Black Swan In Response To: 51S-21? (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 29 November 2006, at 2:36 p.m.
This is a comment about bot rollouts in general, not just this one.
A play like 13/11, 6/5 will lead to much longer and more complex games overall than 24/21. This means more opportunities for the bot to make mistakes for both sides. Which side this will favor here is unclear. However, I feel quite comfortable saying that the rollout of 24/21 will be more stable over time as bots are improved year after year. The rollout of 13/11, 6/5 may turn out to be numerically correct because "the errors cancel", but that's never a good assumption to make; it's merely a convenient one. It's quite possible that this play's equity and/or profile could change quite a lot with a new generation or two of bots.
For this particular play, my choice is always the slot for money and at normal match scores, because I like its complexity and believe longer games favor me in general. There are some opponents where this wouldn't be the case, and I'm sure they know who they are, but they don't come around looking for me all that often now that tasty fish are so plentiful in the backgammon-seas.
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