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Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:21 a.m.

In Response To: Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime? (Daniel Murphy)

It's important to realize that gammons become a lot less valuable than normal when the cube gets to 8 in a 15-point match. ATS, a single win gives Blue a 10-3 lead with about 81.5% ME, a single loss puts him behind with about 11% ME, while a gammon win/loss wins/loses the match. White's gammon price is therefore 18.5/70.5 so he needs nearly 4 extra gammon wins to balance every 1 extra loss. I really doubt hitting two meets this 4/1 threshold (plus you lose some gammons yourself), so it's between hitting once or just making the prime. Making the prime leaves you with about 96-97% winning chances but clearly fewer g chances than the hitting play. You could still win one if Blue rolls D1 for example, or maybe something like 53,52,43 etc. then you roll a 3 and Blue hits back with an ace, or maybe even after just closing out the single checker.

How about the single hit? That gives Blue 5 good shakes from the bar (Fogerlund, 21, D1) plus 8 more that anchor on the ace. Blue's 7 other entering numbers are pretty bad as they leave him dangerously exposed on the 23 and 24-points and some of these also break a point or two in his homeboard. So bad that he's probably an underdog to avoid having two closed out. The 16 dancers probably lead to over 1/2 closeouts as well. White won't play as aggressively to close two out ATS as he would for money, so I think Blue is overall a slight fav to anchor and he anchors on the ace a lot more than on the deuce. If Blue does anchor, White is almost never supposed to attempt a trap play due to the lower than normal gammon price. I think a busted ace/deuce game wins about 6%/10% and having two closed out with a busted board wins only around 1%.

So what's right? I think hitting once. It looks like that gives the oppt 2-3% more wins but you about 15-18% more gammons. How to play the 6 after hitting? Probably real close but 19/13 feels right for some reason.

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