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Roskilde 2003 - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 23 October 2009, at 2:49 a.m.

In Response To: Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime? (Daniel Murphy)

This 2-ply (world class) rollout with G11 MET says the choice is close but also clear: make the prime.

The score is: Opponent 3, Bredahl 2 (match to 15 points)

White to play 61

Opponent	105
Bredahl	57
Position ID: 39sEACDcbQsAAw Match ID: EwHnATAAEAAA

• Opponent moves 20/19*/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/2 3/2	+0.9339
			0.9607 0.0756 0.0097 - 0.0393 0.0007 0.0000 +0.9438 +0.9339 0.0005 0.0015 0.0022 - 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0011 0.0013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1171 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871941597 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	20/19*/13	+0.9205 ( -0.0134)
			0.9341 0.2472 0.0146 - 0.0659 0.0097 0.0005 +0.9393 +0.9205 0.0007 0.0025 0.0024 - 0.0007 0.0015 0.0003 0.0018 0.0020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1172 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871941597 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	20/19* 20/14	+0.9178 ( -0.0161)
			0.9320 0.2537 0.0166 - 0.0680 0.0125 0.0005 +0.9374 +0.9178 0.0008 0.0027 0.0025 - 0.0008 0.0021 0.0003 0.0019 0.0020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871941597 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	20/19* 8/2	+0.9137 ( -0.0203)
			0.9289 0.2647 0.0175 - 0.0711 0.0160 0.0001 +0.9329 +0.9137 0.0010 0.0036 0.0041 - 0.0010 0.0026 0.0001 0.0027 0.0028
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			673 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871941597 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	20/19* 7/1*	+0.8619 ( -0.0720)
			0.9005 0.3282 0.0276 - 0.0995 0.0426 0.0011 +0.8846 +0.8619 0.0012 0.0036 0.0052 - 0.0012 0.0022 0.0008 0.0033 0.0033
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			672 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871941597 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2- , 3- and 4-ply play 20/19*/13.

OTB 8/2 3/2 was the play, which led to this disaster:

The score is: Opponent 3, Bredahl 2 (match to 15 points)

Blue on roll, cube decision?

Opponent	53
Bredahl	30
Position ID: u7cBCID/PoAAAA Match ID: UwngATAAEAAA

Messages In This Thread

• Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 11:56 p.m.
  • Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
    Bill Riles -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:05 a.m.
    • Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
      Tad Bright -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 6:39 a.m.
  • Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:21 a.m.
    • Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:33 a.m.
      • Roskilde 2003 - hit one, hit two or prime?
        John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:42 a.m.
  • Roskilde 2003 - ROLLOUT
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 2:49 a.m.