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Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play -- ROLLOUT

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 23 October 2009, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play. (Daniel Murphy)

The score (after 6 games) is: Steen Gronbech 5, Paul Magriel 10 (match to 17 points. Paul Magriel to play 2-2)

Steen Gronbech	137
Paul Magriel	107
Position ID: Ym/BAQO1OYMZAA Match ID: cAkpAlAAUAAA

• Paul Magriel moves 13/9(2)

Perhaps he was already anticipating a next-turn double, and thought 13/9(2) suited a double best, even if the follow-up to double/take meant leaving an immediate shot.

In Stick's Prague position ( http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=49363), 13/9(2) was a contender. Note that there (besides Blue's smaller race lead) White had only one spare outfield checker, so Blue's 15 point, while difficult to clear, would sometimes be an asset against White's 13 point. Here, White should be able to hold the 13 point for a long time.

Alert: very bad move ( -0.257)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	15/13(2) 4/2 3/1	+0.7143
			0.7138 0.0506 0.0021 - 0.2862 0.0319 0.0008 +0.4411 +0.7143 0.0019 0.0027 0.0003 - 0.0019 0.0015 0.0001 0.0043 0.0110
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	15/13(2) 6/2	+0.6942 ( -0.0201)
			0.7099 0.0479 0.0018 - 0.2901 0.0315 0.0007 +0.4351 +0.6942 0.0017 0.0024 0.0003 - 0.0017 0.0014 0.0001 0.0036 0.0100
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	15/9 15/13	+0.6432 ( -0.0711)
			0.6775 0.1010 0.0043 - 0.3225 0.0656 0.0019 +0.3858 +0.6432 0.0032 0.0035 0.0006 - 0.0032 0.0034 0.0008 0.0089 0.0225
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			232 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	15/11(2)	+0.6324 ( -0.0819)
			0.6837 0.0772 0.0010 - 0.3163 0.0520 0.0016 +0.3855 +0.6324 0.0029 0.0042 0.0009 - 0.0029 0.0024 0.0002 0.0082 0.0190
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			230 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	5	R	13/9(2)	+0.4578 ( -0.2566)
			0.6564 0.0757 0.0024 - 0.3436 0.0597 0.0019 +0.3241 +0.4578 0.0035 0.0026 0.0002 - 0.0035 0.0043 0.0002 0.0095 0.0230
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			230 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

1. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.7362

0.7250 0.0513 0.0006 - 0.2750 0.0272 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.7268 ( -0.0094)

0.7243 0.0489 0.0005 - 0.2757 0.0276 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.6821 ( -0.0541)

0.7164 0.0501 0.0007 - 0.2836 0.0296 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4. Cubeful 2-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.6753 ( -0.0609)

0.6903 0.1103 0.0035 - 0.3097 0.0554 0.0010

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5. Cubeful 2-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.6536 ( -0.0826)

0.7114 0.0601 0.0008 - 0.2886 0.0361 0.0002

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.6536 ( -0.0826)

0.7122 0.0556 0.0007 - 0.2878 0.0345 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.6286 ( -0.1076)

0.7093 0.0434 0.0004 - 0.2907 0.0307 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8. Cubeful 2-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.5910 ( -0.1452)

0.6955 0.0653 0.0008 - 0.3045 0.0336 0.0001

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.5825

0.7022 0.0394 0.0006 - 0.2978 0.0312 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

2. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.5690 ( -0.0135)

0.6992 0.0380 0.0005 - 0.3008 0.0324 0.0010

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

3. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.5616 ( -0.0209)

0.6965 0.0422 0.0008 - 0.3035 0.0344 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

4. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.5610 ( -0.0215)

0.6987 0.0430 0.0007 - 0.3013 0.0338 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

5. Cubeful 3-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.5488 ( -0.0337)

0.6819 0.0555 0.0016 - 0.3181 0.0432 0.0008

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

6. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.5353 ( -0.0472)

0.6924 0.0329 0.0003 - 0.3076 0.0350 0.0007

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

7. Cubeful 3-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.5131 ( -0.0695)

0.6637 0.0981 0.0031 - 0.3363 0.0613 0.0018

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

8. Cubeful 3-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.4648 ( -0.1177)

0.6644 0.0559 0.0010 - 0.3356 0.0464 0.0008

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

1. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.7282

0.7251 0.0473 0.0006 - 0.2749 0.0264 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

2. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.7058 ( -0.0225)

0.7224 0.0469 0.0007 - 0.2776 0.0282 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

3. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.6768 ( -0.0514)

0.7170 0.0485 0.0009 - 0.2830 0.0292 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

4. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.6567 ( -0.0715)

0.7138 0.0532 0.0008 - 0.2862 0.0331 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

5. Cubeful 4-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.6299 ( -0.0983)

0.6823 0.1073 0.0039 - 0.3177 0.0564 0.0012

4-ply cubeful prune

6. Cubeful 4-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.6248 ( -0.1035)

0.7025 0.0666 0.0018 - 0.2975 0.0397 0.0005

4-ply cubeful prune

7. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.6245 ( -0.1037)

0.7101 0.0401 0.0004 - 0.2899 0.0300 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

8. Cubeful 4-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.5390 ( -0.1892)

0.6874 0.0659 0.0011 - 0.3126 0.0377 0.0002

4-ply cubeful prune

Messages In This Thread

• Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 9:54 p.m.
  • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 10:23 p.m.
  • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
    Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 1:36 a.m.
  • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 4:04 a.m.
  • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
    Havard Raddum -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 6:09 a.m.
    • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play.
      Tad Bright -- Thursday, 22 October 2009, at 6:42 a.m.
  • Torsdag Night. 2-2 to play -- ROLLOUT
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 5:47 p.m.