BGonline.org Forums

Torsdag night. Cube action ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 24 October 2009, at 6:50 p.m.

In Response To: Torsdag night. Cube action and action play (neilkaz)

ROFL. Do you think any Google "street view" of Burger Kings have caught a woeful backgammoner on camera?

Anyway, here are four rollouts of (1) the OTB 2-2 play, (2) the OTB cube action next turn, (3) the cube action if the 2-2 had been played differently, and (4) the OTB 5-4 play.

(1) OTB 2-2 play

The score (after 6 games) is: Steen Gronbech 5, Paul Magriel 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 22: Paul Magriel to play 22

Steen Gronbech	137
Paul Magriel	107
Position ID: Ym/BAQO1OYMZAA Match ID: cAkpAlAAUAAA

• Paul Magriel moves 13/9(2)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.257)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	15/13(2) 4/2 3/1	+0.7143
			0.7138 0.0506 0.0021 - 0.2862 0.0319 0.0008 +0.4411 +0.7143 0.0019 0.0027 0.0003 - 0.0019 0.0015 0.0001 0.0043 0.0110
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	15/13(2) 6/2	+0.6942 ( -0.0201)
			0.7099 0.0479 0.0018 - 0.2901 0.0315 0.0007 +0.4351 +0.6942 0.0017 0.0024 0.0003 - 0.0017 0.0014 0.0001 0.0036 0.0100
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	15/9 15/13	+0.6432 ( -0.0711)
			0.6775 0.1010 0.0043 - 0.3225 0.0656 0.0019 +0.3858 +0.6432 0.0032 0.0035 0.0006 - 0.0032 0.0034 0.0008 0.0089 0.0225
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			232 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	15/11(2)	+0.6324 ( -0.0819)
			0.6837 0.0772 0.0010 - 0.3163 0.0520 0.0016 +0.3855 +0.6324 0.0029 0.0042 0.0009 - 0.0029 0.0024 0.0002 0.0082 0.0190
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			230 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	5	R	13/9(2)	+0.4578 ( -0.2566)
			0.6564 0.0757 0.0024 - 0.3436 0.0597 0.0019 +0.3241 +0.4578 0.0035 0.0026 0.0002 - 0.0035 0.0043 0.0002 0.0095 0.0230
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			230 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

1. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.7362

0.7250 0.0513 0.0006 - 0.2750 0.0272 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.7268 ( -0.0094)

0.7243 0.0489 0.0005 - 0.2757 0.0276 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.6821 ( -0.0541)

0.7164 0.0501 0.0007 - 0.2836 0.0296 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4. Cubeful 2-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.6753 ( -0.0609)

0.6903 0.1103 0.0035 - 0.3097 0.0554 0.0010

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5. Cubeful 2-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.6536 ( -0.0826)

0.7114 0.0601 0.0008 - 0.2886 0.0361 0.0002

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

6. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.6536 ( -0.0826)

0.7122 0.0556 0.0007 - 0.2878 0.0345 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.6286 ( -0.1076)

0.7093 0.0434 0.0004 - 0.2907 0.0307 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8. Cubeful 2-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.5910 ( -0.1452)

0.6955 0.0653 0.0008 - 0.3045 0.0336 0.0001

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.5825

0.7022 0.0394 0.0006 - 0.2978 0.0312 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

2. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.5690 ( -0.0135)

0.6992 0.0380 0.0005 - 0.3008 0.0324 0.0010

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

3. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.5616 ( -0.0209)

0.6965 0.0422 0.0008 - 0.3035 0.0344 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

4. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.5610 ( -0.0215)

0.6987 0.0430 0.0007 - 0.3013 0.0338 0.0009

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

5. Cubeful 3-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.5488 ( -0.0337)

0.6819 0.0555 0.0016 - 0.3181 0.0432 0.0008

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

6. Cubeful 3-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.5353 ( -0.0472)

0.6924 0.0329 0.0003 - 0.3076 0.0350 0.0007

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

7. Cubeful 3-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.5131 ( -0.0695)

0.6637 0.0981 0.0031 - 0.3363 0.0613 0.0018

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

8. Cubeful 3-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.4648 ( -0.1177)

0.6644 0.0559 0.0010 - 0.3356 0.0464 0.0008

3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

1. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 6/2 Eq.: +0.7282

0.7251 0.0473 0.0006 - 0.2749 0.0264 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

2. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 4/2 3/1 Eq.: +0.7058 ( -0.0225)

0.7224 0.0469 0.0007 - 0.2776 0.0282 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

3. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 6/4 3/1 Eq.: +0.6768 ( -0.0514)

0.7170 0.0485 0.0009 - 0.2830 0.0292 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

4. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 8/6(2) Eq.: +0.6567 ( -0.0715)

0.7138 0.0532 0.0008 - 0.2862 0.0331 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

5. Cubeful 4-ply 15/9 15/13 Eq.: +0.6299 ( -0.0983)

0.6823 0.1073 0.0039 - 0.3177 0.0564 0.0012

4-ply cubeful prune

6. Cubeful 4-ply 15/11(2) Eq.: +0.6248 ( -0.1035)

0.7025 0.0666 0.0018 - 0.2975 0.0397 0.0005

4-ply cubeful prune

7. Cubeful 4-ply 15/13(2) 3/1(2) Eq.: +0.6245 ( -0.1037)

0.7101 0.0401 0.0004 - 0.2899 0.0300 0.0001

4-ply cubeful prune

8. Cubeful 4-ply 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.5390 ( -0.1892)

0.6874 0.0659 0.0011 - 0.3126 0.0377 0.0002

4-ply cubeful prune

(2) OTB Cube action after 13/9(2) .. 3/2 7/4 6/4

The score (after 6 games) is: Steen Gronbech 5, Paul Magriel 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 24: Paul Magriel on roll, cube decision?

Steen Gronbech	132
Paul Magriel	99
Position ID: sl3BAQO1ORsYAA Match ID: cAkgAlAAUAAA

• Paul Magriel doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1417)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3159	(Money: +0.3177)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4492
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5508
3.	Double, take	+0.3075	-0.1417
Proper cube action:		No double, take (20.5%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6527 0.0604 0.0034 - 0.3473 0.0499 0.0016 +0.3159 +0.4492 Standard error 0.0019 0.0022 0.0007 - 0.0019 0.0020 0.0002 0.0050 0.0106 Player Steen Gronbech owns 2-cube 0.6571 0.0634 0.0024 - 0.3429 0.0515 0.0013 +0.6962 +0.3075 Standard error 0.0019 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0019 0.0018 0.0001 0.0112 0.0172
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
454 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871747430 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.3296 (Money: +0.3242)
0.6582 0.0591 0.0013 - 0.3418 0.0515 0.0010
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.4389
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.5611)
3. Double, take +0.2869 ( -0.1520)
Proper cube action: No double, take (21.3%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.3998 (Money: +0.3906)
0.6810 0.0701 0.0015 - 0.3190 0.0426 0.0003
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.5100
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4900)
3. Double, take +0.4631 ( -0.0468)
Proper cube action: No double, take (8.7%)

(3) Alternate cube action after 15/13(20 4/2 3/1 ... 3-2 7/4 6/4

The score (after 0 games) is: Opponent 5, Hero 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 2: Hero on roll, cube decision?

Opponent	132
Hero	99
Position ID: sl3BAQNbOYMHAA Match ID: cAkgAlAAUAAA

• Hero doubles

Alert: double decision marked doubtful

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4268	(Money: +0.4292)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7203
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2797
3.	No double	+0.6303	-0.0900
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7108 0.0405 0.0012 - 0.2892 0.0333 0.0006 +0.4268 +0.6303 Standard error 0.0030 0.0032 0.0009 - 0.0030 0.0022 0.0002 0.0072 0.0183 Player Opponent owns 2-cube 0.7170 0.0418 0.0007 - 0.2830 0.0335 0.0006 +0.9714 +0.7203 Standard error 0.0029 0.0029 0.0009 - 0.0029 0.0020 0.0002 0.0168 0.0238
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869220498 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4128 (Money: +0.4088)
0.7007 0.0415 0.0006 - 0.2993 0.0336 0.0010
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.5701
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4299)
3. Double, take +0.5525 ( -0.0176)
Proper cube action: No double, take (3.9%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.4664 (Money: +0.4601)
0.7206 0.0497 0.0008 - 0.2794 0.0313 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.6876
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3124)
3. No double +0.6591 ( -0.0285)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.4184 (Money: +0.4147)
0.7043 0.0395 0.0007 - 0.2957 0.0332 0.0009
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.5785
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4215)
3. Double, take +0.5695 ( -0.0090)
Proper cube action: No double, take (2.1%)

(4) OTB 5-4 play

The score (after 6 games) is: Steen Gronbech 5, Paul Magriel 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 26: Paul Magriel to play 54

Steen Gronbech	132
Paul Magriel	99
Position ID: sl3BAQO1ORsYAA Match ID: QYkyAlAAUAAA

• Paul Magriel moves 15/6

Alert: very bad move ( -0.087)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/4 8/3	-0.0139
			0.6036 0.0701 0.0017 - 0.3964 0.0630 0.0019 +0.1852 -0.0139 0.0018 0.0019 0.0008 - 0.0018 0.0017 0.0002 0.0048 0.0076
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869027090 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	15/6	-0.1011 ( -0.0871)
			0.5907 0.0927 0.0088 - 0.4093 0.0765 0.0016 +0.1508 -0.1011 0.0015 0.0025 0.0028 - 0.0015 0.0016 0.0005 0.0046 0.0079
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869027090 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/4 8/3 Eq.: +0.0698

0.6346 0.0726 0.0009 - 0.3654 0.0518 0.0002

2. Cubeful 2-ply 15/6 Eq.: -0.0543 ( -0.1241)

0.6003 0.0906 0.0032 - 0.3997 0.0720 0.0014

1. Cubeful 3-ply 8/4 8/3 Eq.: -0.0426

0.6013 0.0650 0.0013 - 0.3987 0.0700 0.0010

2. Cubeful 3-ply 15/6 Eq.: -0.1218 ( -0.0791)

0.5802 0.0815 0.0039 - 0.4198 0.0760 0.0015

1. Cubeful 4-ply 8/4 8/3 Eq.: +0.0452

0.6270 0.0683 0.0010 - 0.3730 0.0535 0.0006

2. Cubeful 4-ply 15/6 Eq.: -0.0834 ( -0.1286)

0.5949 0.0912 0.0036 - 0.4051 0.0726 0.0017

Messages In This Thread

• Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 5:09 a.m.
  • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
    Havard Raddum -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 6:20 a.m.
  • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
    garyo -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 6:37 a.m.
    • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 2:42 p.m.
      • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
        garyo -- Monday, 26 October 2009, at 5:16 a.m.
  • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 1:47 p.m.
  • Torsdag night. Cube action and action play
    neilkaz -- Friday, 23 October 2009, at 7:36 p.m.
    • Torsdag night. Cube action ROLLOUTS
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 24 October 2009, at 6:50 p.m.