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Backgame theory BOT DATA

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Friday, 30 October 2009, at 2:58 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame theory (Michael Depreli)

I've been trying to improve my backgame understanding recently which follows on from deciding to slot more often in the opening.

When looking at this position I felt that not hitting (18/17 14/11) could well be better.

I first of all consulted Snowie, GNU and BGB they all told me 17/13* was best after which I posted the position here before doing any rollouts.

I then fired up XG and it didn't like 17/13* but opted for a different non-hitting play 17/16 14/11. In fact it's top 5 plays were all non-hitting and it thought my choice was 4th best. In the meantime I rolled it out with gnubg:

White115


2O2O2X2X2X2X2X2X ' ' '2O

'1O1O1O2O3O1X1X ' '1X1O

blue169

Position ID: qh1oADZs2waiAA Match ID: EYHlAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 18/17 14/11 +0.978
0.8090.3920.049-0.1910.0060.003 +1.077 +0.978
0.0070.0080.004-0.0070.0010.003 0.017 0.023
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
212 games, Mersenne Twister dice generator with seed 869117029
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.33 (min. 720 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 17/13* +0.933 ( -0.046)
0.7510.4310.097-0.2490.0030.000 +1.061 +0.933
0.0080.0080.006-0.0080.0010.000 0.021 0.027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
213 games, Mersenne Twister dice generator with seed 869117029
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 2.33 (min. 720 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 17/16 14/11 +0.923 ( -0.056)
0.7510.4260.098-0.2490.0050.000 +1.057 +0.923
0.0070.0090.008-0.0070.0010.000 0.025 0.029
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
300 games, Mersenne Twister dice generator with seed 869117029
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Then I rolled it out with XG seeing as it already prefers the non-hitting plays on 3-ply





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 169
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--AAABCaa--aAB---bbbbbbBB-:1:1:-1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.Rollout118/17 14/11eq: +1.003
Player:
Opponent:		 82.39% (G:37.83% B:4.54%)
17.61% (G:1.03% B:0.06%)		Conf: ± 0.051 (+0.952...+1.054)
Duration: 11 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout117/13*eq: +0.964 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		 77.03% (G:44.44% B:8.93%)
22.97% (G:0.68% B:0.04%)		Conf: ± 0.061 (+0.903...+1.025)
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout117/16 14/11eq: +0.957 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		 78.44% (G:41.88% B:8.88%)
21.56% (G:1.35% B:0.08%)		Conf: ± 0.046 (+0.911...+1.003)
Duration: 15 minutes 02 seconds
4.3 ply18/14eq: +1.073 (+0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		 84.74% (G:39.00% B:4.72%)
15.26% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)
5.3 ply18/15 17/16eq: +1.069 (+0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		 84.72% (G:38.82% B:4.62%)
15.28% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
1 216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.04

Looks promising for my play but needs more trials.

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