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Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 3:59 p.m.

In Response To: A common quick 66 position cube-type (neilkaz)

While playing I thought that this was a close pass since Black is quite blocked, trails in the race, I often escape from the 18 pt and Black's outfield points often break up. I wasn't surprised when XGR+(beta) went into thought here but was surprised when it took it.




is XG Roller +

score: 0
pip: 133
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 117
score: 0

is Neil
XGID=-b-BB-DBB---bA---bBdabb---:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:8
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances: 73.04% (G: 18.54% B: 1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.96% (G: 5.99% B: 0.23%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.457
Double:+1.190
 
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.881 (-0.119)
Double/Take:+1.035 (+0.035)
Double/Drop:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
 
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
 
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.874...+0.889)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.026...+1.044)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 4 hours 45 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10.pre-release

XG thinks this is a close pass on plies 1-4 but XGR and XGR+ both think it is a close take. (XGR+ rates it .992) but no serious mistakes here as it is reasonbly close.

GNU thinks clear .93x take on 2 and 4 ply and drop on 3 ply.

Snowie thinks 1.000 but a take...ie .999x

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