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A better approch?

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 7:18 a.m.

In Response To: A better approch? (Timothy Chow)

For simplicity, consider the case when there are just two plays. The j.s.d. thing is telling you the probability that you would observe an equity difference as large as (or larger than) what you actually observe, under the null hypothesis that the plays have the same equity. This is conceptually quite distinct from the probability that the higher-scoring play is really the better play.

Yet they happen to be quite close in practice (assuming a uniform prior in the Bayesian analyis and brushing over the 'estimating the standard deviation in the Bayesian way' issue).

Messages In This Thread

• Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 5:13 p.m.
  • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 5:30 p.m.
  • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
    Tom Keith -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
    • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
      Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 3:19 a.m.
  • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 7:30 p.m.
    • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 9:20 p.m.
      • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 31 October 2009, at 9:31 p.m.
      • Confidence Interval Overlap vs Joint Standard Deviation (long)
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 12:21 a.m.
  • A better approch?
    eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 4:02 a.m.
    • A better approch?
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 4:32 a.m.
    • A better approch?
      MaX -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 1:19 p.m.
    • A better approch?
      MaX -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 1:22 p.m.
    • A better approch?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 5:37 p.m.
      • A better approch?
        eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 7:36 p.m.
          • A better approch?
            Tom Keith -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 8:38 p.m.
            • A better approch?
              Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 1:20 a.m.
              • A better approch?
                Jason Lee -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 2:24 a.m.
                • A better approch?
                  Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 3:06 p.m.
              • A better approch?
                Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 6:56 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 10:05 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          MaX -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 10:15 a.m.
          • A better approch?
            Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 6:47 p.m.
            • A better approch?
              MaX -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 8:18 a.m.
          • A better approch?
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 7:26 p.m.
            • A better approch?
              MaX -- Thursday, 12 November 2009, at 12:56 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
          • A better approch?
            Tom Keith -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 7:28 p.m.
            • A better approch?
              Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 10:10 p.m.
              • A better approch?
                Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 12:14 a.m.
                • A better approch?
                  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 1:29 a.m.
                  • A better approch?
                    Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 7:18 a.m.
                    • A better approch?
                      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 4:17 p.m.
                      • A better approch?
                        Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 5:23 p.m.
                        • A better approch?
                          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 5:37 p.m.
                          • Aren't you two just particpating in the 250 year old fracas?
                            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 6:19 p.m.
                            • Aren't you two just particpating in the 250 year old fracas?
                              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 7:55 p.m.
                              • Aren't you two just particpating in the 250 year old fracas?
                                Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 8:29 p.m.
                            • Aren't you two just particpating in the 250 year old fracas?
                              Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 12:11 p.m.
                      • A better approch?
                        Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 8:40 p.m.
                        • A better approch?
                          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 10:09 p.m.
                          • A better approch?
                            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 10:51 p.m.
                            • A better approch?
                              Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 11:57 p.m.
                            • A better approch?
                              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 6:52 a.m.
                              • A better approch?
                                Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 7:25 a.m.
                                • A better approch?
                                  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 3:37 p.m.
                                  • A better approch?
                                    Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 9:19 p.m.
                                    • A better approch?
                                      Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 9:42 p.m.
          • A better approch? [LONG]
            MaX -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 3:04 p.m.
            • A better approch? [LONG]
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 3:47 p.m.
            • A better approch? [LONG]
              Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 10:01 p.m.
              • A better approch? [LONG]
                MaX -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 3:31 p.m.
                • A better approch? [LONG]
                  Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 5:52 p.m.
                  • A better approch? [LONG]
                    MaX -- Monday, 9 November 2009, at 12:39 p.m.
                    • A better approch? [LONG]
                      Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 9 November 2009, at 10:59 p.m.
                      • A better approch? [LONG]
                        MaX -- Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 1:33 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          Tom Keith -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 10:23 p.m.
          • A better approch?
            MaX -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 12:35 p.m.
    • A better approch?
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 7:45 p.m.
      • A better approch?
        eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 10:03 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 November 2009, at 10:30 p.m.
    • A better approch?
      Mislav Radica -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 12:59 a.m.
      • A better approch?
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 1:58 a.m.
        • A better approach?
          eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 2:00 a.m.
        • A better approch?
          MaX -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 10:19 a.m.
        • A better approch?
          Mislav Radica -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 12:55 p.m.
          • The different approachs-give us a choice
            Mislav Radica -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 1:18 p.m.
        • A better approch?
          misja -- Monday, 2 November 2009, at 7:36 p.m.
    • A better approch?
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 3 November 2009, at 9:39 p.m.