| |
BGonline.org Forums
Recube
Posted By: Steen Grønbech In Response To: Recube (Christian Munk-Christensen)
Date: Wednesday, 4 November 2009, at 8:21 a.m.
Very interesting position Christian. As always with leader recubes in long matches. One thing I have learned in my BG career is to always think twice before I recube when I am ahead – especially if there is contact in the position. However that does not mean that I never do it. Over the board I would the to simplify the problem to get an estimate on the position. For that I need to enter my black box for about 5 min – so guess I only do this in important matches. Lets try to break it down. What are the winning chances for each player. Lets assume that the leader has 70% winning chance and that about half of them will be gammons (for simplicity I assume that the trailer never wins gammon!). Using Niel’s number.
ND:
30% Lose: 9-7 ~ 61%
35% Win: 11-5 ~ 79%
35% Win G: 13-5 ~ 88%
Average close to 75%
DT:
30% Lose (always recube): 9-13 ~ 26%
35% Win: (13-5 or 17-5) ~ 96% (assuming recube ½ the time)
35% Win G: 17-5 ~ 100%
Average close to 75%
So what to conclude from this? First of all with contact the trailer will always win some very expensive gammons (there is always 5% gammon in a contact position like prime vs. prime). This points to ND. Also when it is this close you can take a second look at your game winning estimates – maybe the gammonrate is a little to the high end.So what to do? We know now based on the above analysis that it is an easy take and maybe not a double. Look closely at your opponent. Does he look like a pass? I am 100% that many would pass this position! If he does not have a clue on match equities there is a big chance that he will pass this. My conclusion is that the theory says ND/T. In practice I would double some opponents.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.