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Recube

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 6 November 2009, at 5:24 a.m.

In Response To: Recube (Steen Grønbech)

Lets use Steen's estimate of 30% losses with 5% G losses along with the ME's from Neil's numbers.

Lets assume that our opp mindlessly recubes to 8 no matter what when he takes.

If he passes we lead 11-5/17 for 78.5% so opp has 21.5% ME

If he takes and wins a G, that is 5% matches for him.

He takes and wins 8 pts and leads 13-9 for 74% ME 25% of the time.

18.5 + 5 = 23.5% ME from taking and recubing mindlessly !!

I do think that we might win a bit over 70%, but still this is an easy take even when based on my insta-recube assumption.

In situations like this when the trailer has that clear a take of a large cube and there's G's floating around, it is quite clear to NOT recube.

OTB, most players would love to take this vs me. I hope I don't flatter myself too much when I state that I will get few passes here. If I assume that I am 100 ELO stronger than someone, who might pass, I am making a huge blunder if he takes. The type of player to try to steal from here, is one with strong checker play but poor match equity skills. I run across far fewer of those players now that several years ago.

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