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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 1:34 a.m.

In Response To: Should I come under the gun? (Timothy Chow)

The rollout has 24/22 6/2 coming out ahead by a large margin. Interestingly, 13/7 scores slightly worse than the move I played, 8/2. If we move a Blue checker from the 6-point back to the midpoint, or give Blue the bar-point or the 10-point instead of the 5-point, then 13/7 becomes a closer contender. In the given position, though, I think that because 13/7 strips the midpoint, leaving the bar-point blot hard to cover, it just isn't very good.

Anyway, it seems that timing considerations force Blue to split now. Blue's forward position is too advanced and it will deteriorate while White's forward position gets better. Board strength is currently equal and although the danger of getting attacked is real, it is far from fatal.

gnubg	143
tchow	153
Position ID: cG/CAQaw58EBMA Match ID: cAkKAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/22 6/2	-0.610
			0.366 0.085 0.004 - 0.634 0.238 0.008 -0.425 -0.610 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869399626 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/22 13/9	-0.706 ( -0.096)
			0.343 0.080 0.003 - 0.657 0.248 0.010 -0.490 -0.706 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869399626 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/2	-0.755 ( -0.144)
			0.329 0.076 0.002 - 0.671 0.220 0.008 -0.492 -0.755 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869399626 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/7	-0.763 ( -0.153)
			0.325 0.076 0.003 - 0.675 0.217 0.010 -0.498 -0.763 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869399626 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Should I come under the gun?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 1:33 a.m.
  • Should I come under the gun?
    garyo -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 4:18 p.m.
  • Should I come under the gun?
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 5 November 2009, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 1:34 a.m.