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Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:12 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas #1 (Christian Plenz)

Version 1.04 display the winning % for the No double line.

This is changed in version 1.10 and it display now both (see below)

In the No double line, because the player on roll cash most of the time, the winning percentage are the one at this time. and the 1-ply overestimate the chances.

here is the 1-ply RO




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 58
6 point match
pip: 90
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=aBABBCC----------A--cbAbf-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:6:8
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 86.82% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.18% (G: 1.39% B: 0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89.94% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10.06% (G: 1.75% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.720
Redouble:+1.158
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.914 (-0.086)
Redouble/Take:+1.056 (+0.056)
*Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
720 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.010 (+0.905...+0.924)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (+1.041...+1.070)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 0.6 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10.pre-release, MET: eXtremeGammon

I ran also a more intresting one in 4-ply




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 58
6 point match
pip: 90
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=aBABBCC----------A--cbAbf-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:6:8
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 90.07% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.93% (G: 1.09% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 91.20% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.80% (G: 1.67% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.789
Redouble:+1.290
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.905 (-0.095)
Redouble/Take:+1.136 (+0.136)
*Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.904...+0.906)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.004 (+1.132...+1.140)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10.pre-release, MET: eXtremeGammon

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