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Las Vegas #1

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:21 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas #1 (Chuck Bower)

So to finish the problem we need to know how often White wins after a closeout.

Given White's position, between 3% and 4%, more often than not close to 3%.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 3 (match to 6 points)

Move number 11: White on roll, cube decision?

White	58
Blue	57
Position ID: 2+4OAAC/2QEAIA Match ID: AgHAAAAAGAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.9408	(Money: -0.9408)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.9012
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.9012
3.	Double, take	-0.9012	+0.0000
Proper cube action:		Optional redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 4-cube 0.0296 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9704 0.0000 0.0000 -0.9408 -0.9012 Standard error 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0027 Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.0296 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9704 0.0000 0.0000 -0.9012 -0.9012 Standard error 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869582619 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 3 (match to 6 points)

Move number 15: White on roll, cube decision?

White	58
Blue	48
Position ID: d7cNAAC/2QEAIA Match ID: AgHAAAAAGAAA

• White doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0000)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.9184	(Money: -0.9184)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.8640
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.8640
3.	Double, take	-0.8640	-0.0000
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (0.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 4-cube 0.0408 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9592 0.0000 0.0000 -0.9184 -0.8640 Standard error 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0012 0.0020 Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.0408 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9592 0.0000 0.0000 -0.8640 -0.8640 Standard error 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869582619 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

the ref. pos.'s for these (when White's board is closed -- 6%?).

Less.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 3 (match to 6 points)

Move number 17: White on roll, cube decision?

White	71
Blue	57
Position ID: 2+4OAADbbgMAIA Match ID: AgHAAAAAGAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.9286	(Money: -0.9286)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	-0.8808
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.8808
3.	No double	-0.8809	-0.0001
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 4-cube 0.0357 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9643 0.0000 0.0000 -0.9286 -0.8809 Standard error 0.0026 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 0.0052 0.0087 Player Blue owns 8-cube 0.0357 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9643 0.0000 0.0000 -0.8808 -0.8808 Standard error 0.0026 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 0.0086 0.0086
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
104 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869582619 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Las Vegas #1
  Jason Lee -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 9:47 a.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Seth -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 11:55 a.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Dan Pelton -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 12:41 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 1:22 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    David -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 3:55 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    misja -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 4:24 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Neil Robins -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 5:52 p.m.
    • Las Vegas #1
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:21 a.m.
    • Las Vegas #1
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 5:57 p.m.
      • Las Vegas #1
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 8 November 2009, at 4:49 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Keene -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 7:03 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Martin -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 8:25 p.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Klaus Evers -- Friday, 6 November 2009, at 9:14 p.m.
    • Las Vegas #1
      Martin -- Sunday, 8 November 2009, at 10:27 a.m.
  • Las Vegas #1
    Christian Plenz -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 1:51 a.m.
    • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
      eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:12 a.m.
      • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
        Christian Plenz -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:21 a.m.
        • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
          Jason Lee -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:31 a.m.
          • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
            Christian Plenz -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:48 a.m.
            • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
              Jason Lee -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 7:50 a.m.
        • Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout
          eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:53 a.m.