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Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2009, at 3:53 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas #1 - 1 ply and 4-ply Rollout (Christian Plenz)

Winning percentages are calculated based on the average of the all games played. However when one game ends in a double/drop the game is not rolled to its end (cubeless) and the winning percentage added to the average are one from the position evaluated in the ply setting for the position at the Double/drop time.

Here 25 of every 36 games results in a close out. XG 1-ply does underestimate the player on roll chances to win (after the close out it gives about 9% chances. 3-ply or RO gives less than 5%). These 4% errors 25/36 of the time result in the winning percentage to be inflated by 2.7%.

1-ply Rollout are great for speed, but the drawback is that they are not as accurate than 3-ply RO in some case. This is such case.

Xavier Dufaure de Citres

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