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Blue to play 65

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 9 November 2009, at 10:14 p.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 65 (Andreas)

In response to Andreas’ question, 22/11 is nactated "R." The roll and play together: 65R.

In Timothy's position, and in the opening position, there is only one running play with 65. When there is a choice of running plays, the lead checker is allocated capital "R" and the trailing checker lower-case "r."

Consider the two closely related positions listed below. [Nactation translation: Black rolled opening 52 and Split (13/8 24/22), White replied with either 51 or 52 and Split (13/8 24/23 or 13/8 24/22), and Black now has 65 to play.]

52S-51S-65: R (Run, 22/11) is tied with r (run, 24/13).
52S-52S-65: R is a much better play than r.

After R, the 11pt blot is exposed to 6 hitting numbers in both positions. The key distinction is that in the second position half of the hitting numbers (64 and 22) are strongly duplicated.

[Note: The positions 65R-51S-52 and 65R-52S-52 present the equivalent choice. That is, S (Split, 13/8 24/22) and D (Down, 13/8 13/11) are tied in the first position, whereas Black should play D in the second position.]

The theme of greater willingness to play to the 11pt against a 2-split than against a 1-split arises even as early as the second roll. For example, for 51S-62, R (Run, 24/16) is right and S (Split, 24/18 13/11) is wrong (by a margin of .03), whereas for 52S-62, R and S are tied.

Another example: For 51S-21, U (Up, 24/21) beats S (Split, 24/23 13/11), whereas for 52S-21, S beats U, and by more than .02 in both cases.

Congratulations to Vegas cashers MCG, Stick, Carter, Ken Bame, Alan Grunwald, and twice to Rich Munitz; apologies to any bgonliners overlooked.

Nack