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Rollout

Posted By: KenB
Date: Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 7:23 p.m.

In Response To: LV screwup (KenB)

I considered three plays,

13/9 6/2 gets a checker off of the heavy 13 and keeps the seven point and dups 5s.

7/2 6/2 makes a point and dups 3s

7/2 7/3 is what I played thinking I was up in the race and should race.

The standout play is 13/8 13/9 and it is even barely correct at a non GG score (see post below). At -3 -4 it is a blunder not to bring two down.

The score (after 0 games) is: Gnu 4, Ken 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 4: Ken to play 45

Gnu	128
Ken	126
Position ID: 1jzBAQbMbuAHAA Match ID: cAn2AEAAGAAA

• Ken moves 7/3 7/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.162	(Money: +0.184)
	0.596 0.033 0.001 - 0.404 0.042 0.001
Cubeful equities:
	2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.	No double	+0.443
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.557
3.	Double, take	+0.235	-0.208
Proper cube action:		No double, take (27.2%)

Alert: bad move ( -0.105)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/9 13/8	+0.202
			0.551 0.083 0.009 - 0.449 0.131 0.008 +0.070 +0.362 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862630104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/8 6/2	+0.105 ( -0.096)
			0.531 0.062 0.005 - 0.469 0.112 0.006 +0.006 +0.285 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862630104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	7/3 7/2	+0.096 ( -0.105)
			0.531 0.036 0.003 - 0.469 0.073 0.002 +0.011 +0.278 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862630104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/9 6/1	+0.085 ( -0.116)
			0.525 0.077 0.007 - 0.475 0.121 0.005 -0.001 +0.269 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862630104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	7/2 6/2	+0.049 ( -0.153)
			0.514 0.054 0.003 - 0.486 0.098 0.004 -0.028 +0.239 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862630104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV screwup
  KenB -- Tuesday, 10 November 2009, at 9:30 p.m.
  • LV screwup
    Michael Depreli -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 9:50 a.m.
  • LV screwup
    Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 12:38 p.m.
  • LV screwup
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 3:47 p.m.
  • LV screwup
    Keene -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 4:58 p.m.
  • LV screwup
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 5:01 p.m.
  • Rollout
    KenB -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 7:23 p.m.
    • Rollout#2 at -7 -7
      KenB -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 7:28 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 11 November 2009, at 9:28 p.m.