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Re: Othello #4

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 30 November 2006, at 12:48 p.m.

In Response To: Othello #4 (Stick)

If Blue makes the three point he is relying on his holding game. Down 18 pips, racing chances will be slim - about 10% at at guess. Blue can also hit by cubing after a hit. He will usually have two indirect shots (5.5% each), or he can hit as White clears points (about 8% if I recall Robertie correctly.) Altogether that makes about 27% wins (though that feels a bit optimistic to me).

If Blue plays b/15(2), he may well get quite a few immediate, direct shots, Lets count: Shots 65 64 62 61 54 51 42 66 44 22 Safe 63 53 52 43 41 32 31 21 55 33 11

Seventeen rolls leave shots, so we'll give Blue 6 hits and wins. 33 is a disaster, so nothing. On the remaining 18 rolls I'll assume the same racing chances, so 2 wins out of 18. Sometimes Blue will hit a later shot, and sometimes he's trapped behind a prime, so I'll cancel those out. That's only 8 wins (22%), so by my estimates the holding play is better. That's what I'd play over the board, but it looks too prosaic to be a quiz answer. Coming out with two must be right, 'coz I can't see running out with one as a viable option.

Messages In This Thread

• Othello #4
  Stick -- Wednesday, 29 November 2006, at 4:43 a.m.
  • Re: Othello #4
    Black Swan -- Wednesday, 29 November 2006, at 2:15 p.m.
  • 3 Ply Analysis
    Stick -- Thursday, 30 November 2006, at 5:21 a.m.
  • Re: Othello #4
    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 30 November 2006, at 12:48 p.m.