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Take or Pass - Trust your bot?

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 7:10 p.m.

Same MET different decision. I'd be interested to know if anyone can explain the difference in winning chances after D/T between bots. Upping the play level to 4/5 ply just basically repeated what each said for 2/3 ply. At the moment I'm inclined to trust GNU more because GNU's Two-sided Database gives the cubeless equity for the position as 0.5006

The score (after 2 games) is: A_hulagirl 2, Anterico 2 (match to 5 points)

Move number 42: A_hulagirl on roll, cube decision?

A_hulagirl	35
Anterico	39
Position ID: tW0AAKjNAQAAAA Match ID: AQGgACAAEAAA

• A_hulagirl doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4889	(Money: +0.4889)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9984
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0016
3.	No double	+0.8302	-0.1682
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player A_hulagirl owns 2-cube 0.7444 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2556 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4889 +0.8302 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 Player Anterico owns 4-cube 0.7504 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2496 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9984 +0.9984 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
25920 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842506216 and quasi-random dice
Play: 4-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 2 more moves within equity 0.04
Skip pruning for 3-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

	is A_hulagirl score: 2 pip: 35 5 point match pip: 39 score: 2 is Anterico
XGID=-AABBBB------------c-bbaa-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	75.13% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.87% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.503
Redouble:	+1.007
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.831 (-0.169)
Redouble/Take:	+1.007 (+0.007)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 Moves: 5 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.000 (+0.831...+0.831)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.000 (+1.007...+1.007)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• Take or Pass - Trust your bot?
  Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 7:10 p.m.
  • Bearoff DB's?
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 8:49 p.m.
  • Take or Pass - Trust your bot?
    Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 11:08 p.m.
  • Take or Pass - Trust your bot?
    eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 3 December 2009, at 1:11 a.m.
    • Take or Pass - Trust your bot?
      Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 3 December 2009, at 7:24 a.m.