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Take or Pass - Trust your bot?

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Thursday, 3 December 2009, at 1:11 a.m.

In Response To: Take or Pass - Trust your bot? (Neil Robins)

The one-sided BO db give 75.24% Currently XG two-sided BO db is only over 6 checkers (on the last 6 points).

There are a few cases where the one-sided will not be optimal, this is one of them. Typicaly the position creating the small error are the one that lead to pip wastage and where some position would be played differently in the last 2 roll. This is when you need to maximize the chances of getting out in 1 roll rather than optmizing the average number of roll it takes to bear off (which is what the one sided does).

Rolling out will show the same value because of VR: the engine is so set on the 75.24% value that it will ripple down to the final analyze.

Here is a RO without VR As of the double/take desision. it depends which MET you use but in case that's very close ad this is the biggest error you make in the game, you should be okay.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 35
6
5 point match





5
 pip: 39
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-AABBBB------------c-bbaa-:1:-1:-1:00:2:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 75.01% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.93% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.94% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.500
Redouble:+0.999
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.812 (-0.186)
Redouble/Take:+0.999
*Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.001)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1769472 Games rolled.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.811...+0.814)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.996...+1.001)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 87.1%
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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