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Me vs. Falafel 53 Holding Game ROs

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 4 December 2009, at 4:33 p.m.

In Response To: Me vs. Falafel 53 Holding Game ROs (Matt Cohn-Geier)

The problem with leaving a shot is apparently the shot. I wouldn't have been sure of this, but that's what the rollout says to me.

This is a computer aided response (36ing). I didn't see all of this originally. If you think about subsequent play after 11-3 vs 11-8, 6-1, you can usually run the back checker in the absence of something better. In these cases, the equity will usually be very close after either play. However, if you roll a nine or a twelve, this option isn't available. So, the player needs to check what happens with nines and twelves. 33, 44 & 54 all present reasonable options after both moves. However, 63 & 66 play poorly after 11-3, but reasonably after 11-8, 6-1. You need that spare on the eight. There are no big swing rolls going the other way. Therefore, 11-8, 6-1 is superior. What happens right now is much more important than what happens later.

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