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GDP

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 5 December 2009, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: Me vs. Falafel 53 Holding Game ROs (David Rockwell)

Of the explanations I read here, yours is the one with which I most resonate, David.

Swings on the next roll matter most, I agree. The ones in 11/8 5/1's favor are 63 (which you mentioned), 33 (which you accidentally(?) omitted) and 66 (which I put in a different category).

There is an effect that lasts beyond the first roll that I call the "GDP," the Gap Diversity Principle. White will want to clear her 10pt before clearing other points (note that owning the 9pt already prevents Blue from bringing both checkers out with 65), especially when she leads in the race. White cannot do so when one of her numbers is a 3. Putting spares on the 6pt and 3pt is a duplication of bad 3s -- a failure to diversify/help the 3s that cannot clear the 10pt due to the 7pt gap.

After 11/3, it is more than the immediately subsequent 63 33 that hurt. It is also sequences such as 51 or 42 followed by 43, or 64 followed by 43, 53 or 63. In short, to minimize the awkwardness of 3s now and later, White should keep spares off the 6pt and already-made 3pt, even though the 6pt is typically the optimal spot for a spare.

16/13 11/6 is the worst of the five competive plays: not only does it leave 2 hitting numbers (like 16/8 does) but it also commits the sin of putting two spares on the 6pt/3pt (like 11/3 does).

Earlier, I stated that the roll of 66 is in a different category (than 63 33). There is a crossover issue that hurts only 11/3. After any of the other four plays, 66 will not require breaking a second outside point.

If you were to alter the position so that White has the 7pt instead of the 9pt (and let's mostly race-compensate Blue with the non-slotting 7/4), then GDP no longer admonishes 3s, and I'm sure that, despite the 66 swing that still hurts it, 11/3 would recoup (overcome?) most or all of the .021 and .032 rollout deficits (on Gnu and XG, respectively) it currently suffers to 11/8 5/1. [16/11 6/3 might gain more, but that's beside the point.]

Nack

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