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Fast Rollouts

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 6 December 2009, at 4:31 p.m.

In Response To: Fast Rollouts (neilkaz)

It can be tested. Rollout a position to death to see its true value. Then rollout it out in sets of say 100 games each. For each find the 50% confidence interval and find out what % of the time it does in fact "capture" the true value. I am doing something like that now and will have results in a few days. I don't see why the reported std errors would not be appropriate, the math of how they are made seems fine.

I strongly feel though that the reported joint standard deviation is usually too large as the calculation is based on independence and ignores the advantage gained by using a parallel dice stream.

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