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LA -- JLee vs. Bill Riles #1

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 3:00 a.m.

In Response To: LA -- JLee vs. Bill Riles #1 (Jason Lee)

If you double to 8, Bill has the choice of taking and playing this game for the match (after he redoubles to 16 regardless of what you roll) or dropping and giving you the lead 5-away, 10-away (which gives him about 23% MWC). He needs to win this game more than 23% of the time to justify a take, and I think (best guess) that he has slightly more wins than that, about 24%. So Bill is going to take and redouble you, and the question becomes: Do you want to play this game for the match with about 76% MWC? If you don't double, your MWC is (a) 24% of your MWC trailing 9-away, 6-away (.24x33%=7.9%) plus (b) 76% of your MWC leading 5-away, 10-away (.76x77%=58.5%), for a total of 66.4% MWC. If my guesstimates are correct, it looks like you should double and Bill should take and redouble, which gives you 76% MWC and gives Bill 24% MWC.

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