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LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 6:04 a.m.

In Response To: LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test (neilkaz)

Dorn rolls a double: 16.7%. Of the remaining 83.3%, Neil gets both checkers off 11/36 = 30.5%. Therefore, Neil wins (30.5%x83.3%)=25.4%; Dorn wins 74.6%.

If Dorn doubles and Neil drops, at -3-7 Neil's MWC (against an equally skilled opponent) is about 23.5%, so Neil is better off taking and redoubling for the match (unless Neil believes that against Dorn his MWC increases from 23.5% to greater than 25.4%).

If Dorn does not double, his MWC is (a) 74.6%x76.5% (the MWC at -3-7)= 57.1% plus (b) 25.4%x50% (the MWC at -5-5)= 12.7%, for a total of 69.8%, so Dorn is much better off if he doubles.

Proper cube action: RD/T (with the proviso that Neil would be correct to drop if believed that his opponent specific MWC was 2% greater at -3-7 than shown on the G11 MET).

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