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Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 4:50 p.m.

In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Christian Plenz)

I think the way to look at these situations is to go back to Risk v Gain calculations.

Player A risks 5% match equity if player B takes when he goes down from 85% by playing on undoubled to 80% with Double/Take.

Player A stands to gain 2% from 85% to 87%, if player B blunders by passing.

Often there is a MUCH bigger gain from an incorrect pass than this. In fact I am sort of surprised at these numbers because common sense would dictate that if it is wrong to Double, then it must be MORE wrong to pass. {{{ie: you can always profit from a wrong double if the other idiot passes it!}}}

But back to the stated example... Risking 5 to gain 2, Player A will only gain by doubling when his opponent passes more often than 5 out of 7 times.

Risk/ (Risk + Gain) = % passes required to profit from the gambit.

Maybe Bob Koca can correct my math if I have this wrong.

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