[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 5:04 p.m.

In Response To: LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test (neilkaz)

I simplify fractions to arrive at a ballpark number for ease of later calculations in these situations.

Black bears off in one shake 1/6 of the time, therefore White gets a chance to win 5/6.

White has 11 numbers to bear off his two checkers out of 36 shakes. 11 is the equivalent of a direct shot which is just over 30%... So for ease of math I use the fraction 3/10.

5/6 x 3/10 = 15/60 which is easy to do even OTB.

Neil has almost exactly 25% wins from here.

If he figures he is less match equity wise at 3 away 7 away then he should take and rewhip if he has the chance. At this point if it is close he should consider the effects of ELO between the two players as I am sure that he did do. Passing gives him something like 22% to 24% or so I guess... So I would take.

One thing to remember though is that two roll positions one can trap the other player... Because the match ends in one shake sometimes. Neil is experienced enough to factor that in, of course.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.