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BGonline.org Forums
OTB etc
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: LA Masters Cube #4 a simple bearoff showing that tourney BG can be a math test (neilkaz)
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
OTB it was easy to see that I win 55/216 which is almost 25.5% (reduce to 54/216 = 25% and then 1/216 is almost 0.5% added)
If I pass, per our rolled out Supremo MET I have about 23.75% ME. Dorn plays well and was playing very well vs me, so I had serious doubts that I could beat him 25.5% of the time from -7-3 and was going to take. I then saw that I can still win my 9.3% of the time when he throws dubs and I had nothing further to consider.
I took.. he failed to roll dubs, I recubed and we hedged everything fairly based on my 11/36 chances. I then rolled 54 for the title !
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