BGonline.org Forums

-3,-4 cube action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 8:02 p.m.

In Response To: -3,-4 cube action (rew)

Does the oppt have a take? I don't think so but I'm far from sure. If Black takes and mindlessly recubes on his next shake his takepoint becomes his equity is at 4a 2a (I use 33%). The auto recube is not correct for the trailer ATS of course so his true takepoint is probably around 30-31%. Can he win it this often? I don't think so. The non-6 entering numbers force him to break his 5-prime right away and will probably lead to either a poorly-timed 2/3 backgame or a gammonish 22-point game with several spares on the 22 or on the roof.

Even if I'm wrong and Black is supposed to take if doubled, it still might be one of those too good and not good enough positions for White. The centered cube gammon price is around 15/17 for the leader ATS and I think White's gammon chances/Black's winning chances are at least close to this, so I'd take a roll.

ND/P.

Messages In This Thread

• -3,-4 cube action
  rew -- Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 9:52 a.m.
  • -3,-4 cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 8:02 p.m.
  • -3,-4 cube action
    David -- Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 9:36 p.m.
  • RO
    rew -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 8:52 a.m.
    • RO
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 10:54 a.m.
      • RO
        rew -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 12:54 p.m.
        • New RO
          rew -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 2:43 p.m.
          • Mine using g11
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
            • Mine using g11
              rew -- Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 6:34 p.m.
              • Mine using g11
                neilkaz -- Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 4:15 p.m.