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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 9:22 p.m.

In Response To: LA Masters Finals Cube #1 (neilkaz)

OTB with 15 covers (although 66) blots and an advantage if I don't cover and left, I had to recube. Dorn did the math starting out with winning 1.5 of the 15 games when I do cover, and decided that he had at least 9 total cubeful wins so he took. Note that I used 4 ply for this RO as it is fast anyhow, so, while it likely doesnt matter, it is basically no cost to use a stronger setting.




is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 60
13 point match
pip: 68
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aBCBCBA-A---------A-bbcd--:1:1:1:D:0:1:0:13:10
double to 4 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.55% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.45% (G: 0.44% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.19% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.81% (G: 0.44% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.486
Redouble:+1.036
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.758 (-0.130)
Redouble/Take:+0.889
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.003 (+0.755...+0.762)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.005 (+0.884...+0.893)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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