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Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error'

Posted By: Robert Maier
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 4:28 a.m.

In Response To: Philosophical Question on 'Wrong D/P is not an Error' (Christian Plenz)

I have missed the post where the folks that more comfortably juggle the mathematics have revealed the correct answer?

It seems obvious to this dullard that it must be theoretically correct to double, at some frequency greater than zero, when the "true" evaluation is no double. It seems quite similar to the fact that it is correct to shove, at some frequency greater than zero, when you're an underdog in a NLHE pot.

Player A's "range" for "wrong doubling" depends on Player B's abilities. I don't think it matters that player A might not have even the foggiest idea what that range is, just like it doesn't matter whether or not he fails to make a spectacular checker play blunder through skill or the mental coin coming up tails.

The real problem is that we aren't really smart enough to know what the right range is, so that we can compare *individual* wrong double actions from Player A to that range. We can claim to make these comparisons for checker plays, for proper doubles and pass/take decisions. Perhaps when we talk of error rates we should break them down into more categories, so that we have a couple of untainted numbers that no one will quarrel with, and we can deal with this last troublesome bit separately.

This wrong double score probably needs to be computed over time, a compilation of the pluses and minuses over many matches. If you never ever make a wrong double, your score is zero in that category, which presumably would be a very strong score. In any particular instance of wrong double, the result is either a plus score if the opponent correctly takes, or a much larger (presumably the delta Take-WrongPass is usually greater than that for Take-NoDouble) minus score if the opponent incorrectly passes. Eventually, you will have enough data to compute an individuals wrong double score to some statistical significance. If it's statistically plus, we are suffering from Fancy Play Syndrome. If it's statistically minus, we are playing better than the guy who never makes a wrong double.

Right?

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