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Re: Re: Ballard v. Sylvester - More Game 3

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 19 May 2007, at 4:17 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Ballard v. Sylvester - More Game 3 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

All right, on second glance, I may have gotten a bit overzealous here. 10/5 6/4 is likely approaching blunder range, since White needs to do something with the back men while he has the better prime, and the race is close enough that 23/21, 10/5 is viable. After the play, it's probably not a double, although I think it's close either way. Still, 23/16 looks right. Sitting back on the 21 point just gives Blue a bunch of good numbers to point on a blot, make the 5 point, or race home. At worst, if Blue completely misses everything, then he winds up leaving a 5-number shot. After 23/16, Blue can't make the 4 point or 5 point unless he rolls doubles, since he has to do something with his checker on the 16. If Blue can't play safe, White usually ends up having a 7- or 8- number shot from the bar instead of a 0-, 1-, or 5- number shot. 23/16 is clear in my mind. But I've been wrong before.

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